What Liverpool Needs Against Chelsea to Clinch Champions League Football

As the 2025/26 Premier League season enters its final stretch, Liverpool’s objective is crystal clear: secure a return to the UEFA Champions League. Following a tense 3-2 defeat to Manchester United at Old Trafford last weekend, Arne Slot’s men are eager to bounce back. Fortunately, their destiny remains entirely in their own hands as they prepare to host a struggling Chelsea side at Anfield this Saturday afternoon. Here is a full breakdown of the permutations and what Liverpool needs to officially book their ticket to Europe’s premier club competition. The Magic Number: Four Points Thanks to the Premier League securing five Champions League spots this season (via UEFA’s European Performance Spots), Liverpool just needs to guarantee a top-five finish. Currently sitting in fourth place with 58 points, the Reds know that a maximum of **four points** from their remaining three matches will make them mathematically uncatchable by the chasing pack. If Liverpool extends Chelsea’s miserable Premier League losing streak with a victory at Anfield, they will secure 75% of the points required in one swoop. A home win would immediately eliminate Brighton and Brentford from catching them and would leave sixth-placed Bournemouth needing a flawless finish just to stay mathematically alive. How Liverpool Can Qualify This Weekend With a Draw Interestingly, Liverpool could still pop the champagne this weekend even if they fail to beat Chelsea. If the Reds secure a draw against the Blues, they can still clinch Champions League qualification if results elsewhere go their way. Specifically, Bournemouth would have to lose their away match at Fulham, while both Brentford and Brighton would have to drop points (fail to win) in their respective matches against Manchester City and Wolves. In short, if Liverpool matches or betters the results of the teams directly below them, top-tier European football will be returning to Anfield. The Opposition: A Wounded Chelsea On paper, this fixture looks like a highly favorable matchup for Liverpool. Chelsea is currently enduring a catastrophic run of form, having lost six consecutive Premier League matches. Their most recent outing was a disappointing 3-1 home defeat to Nottingham Forest, which led to the club installing Calum McFarlane as interim head coach. To make matters worse, Chelsea is traveling to Merseyside with a heavily depleted squad, missing up to five wingers (including Pedro Neto and Alejandro Garnacho) and their goalkeeper Robert Sanchez. Despite Chelsea’s crisis, Liverpool forward Cody Gakpo—who recently scored his 50th goal for the club—has warned his teammates against complacency. "They are in a tough place at the moment, but at one point it has to turn around. Hopefully it's not against us," Gakpo stated. "We shouldn't at all underestimate them for the quality they have. It's always a tough game." Chelsea’s Bizarre, Faint Champions League Hope While Chelsea’s top-five ambitions are mathematically dead, the west London club surprisingly still has a backdoor route to the Champions League, which gives them something to fight for. If Chelsea manages to climb the table and finish in sixth place, they could qualify for the Champions League under one highly specific condition: Aston Villa (currently fifth) must win the Europa League and remain in fifth place in the Premier League. If that happens, the European Performance Spot shifts down to sixth place. The Verdict While Chelsea is fighting for a statistical miracle, Liverpool’s path is straightforward. A win at Anfield puts Arne Slot's side on the absolute brink of qualification, while a win coupled with favorable results elsewhere finishes the job entirely. All eyes will be on Merseyside to see if the Reds can get it over the line.